Jin Shiyuan (603369): Interim report shows stable company growth will continue to benefit from sub-high-end expansion

Jin Shiyuan (603369): Interim report shows stable company growth will continue to benefit from sub-high-end expansion

The incident described the company’s 19H1 revenue 30.

6 trillion, ten years +29.

5%, net profit attributable to mother 10.

7 trillion, +25 a year.

2%; of which Q2 income is 11.

20,000 yuan, +26 a year.

6%, net profit attributable to mother 4.

3 ‰, +24 a year.


Core point 1, the performance of the interim report is stable, and the operating rhythm is steadily advancing according to the expected target: the company’s Q2 revenue and profit growth slightly deviated from Q1, but the overall remains high, and the company’s operations follow the target (about 30% of revenue, about 25% of profit)Steady progress; in the first half of the year, profit growth declined and revenue increased. The company increased brand promotion and expansion outside the province each year, and sales expenses increased by +33.

2% to 3.

9 trillion, of which advertising costs ten years +36.

6% to 3.

US $ 100 million; US $ 200 million; budget, taxes and surcharges increased by more than 1 in the first half of the year.

1 point to 13.


The volume of sub-high-end and high-end products is heavy, but the gross profit margin in the first half of the year is basically the same every year, mainly due to the drag on cost growth of middle and low-end products (packaging materials, raw materials, etc.). The replacement product structure will continue to upgrade in the future, and the company’s profitability is still improving.
Q2 sales receipts / operating net cash flow was +26 every.

1% / + 43.

3% to 12.

2 ppm / 3.

50,000 yuan, a significant improvement over the previous quarter.

2. Sub-high-end performance is still the core highlight, and continuous efforts outside the province: Sub-high-end special A + category +44 in the first half of the year.

3% to 16.

7 trillion, the growth rate continues to remain high, accounting for 54% of the overall revenue.

7%, the next high-end expansion logic is still the core focus of the company.

By region, the first half of the Nanjing Region was +48.

From 9% to 90,000 yuan, the scale of revenue has far exceeded that of Huai’an, becoming the company’s largest market in the province; the market outside the province was +51 once in the first half of the year.

4% to 1.

9 trillion, of which Q2 increased by 28%, an improvement from the previous Q1. We judge that it is mainly related to the off-season market adjustment and inventory digestion. This year is a key year for the company to attack the markets outside the province., The number of dealers outside the province has reached 356 (H1 increased by 97, decreased by 14).

3. In the short term, it will continue to enjoy the volume of national borders and the increase in the province’s market share: Today Shiyuan is one of the most 南京夜网论坛 mature wine companies cultivated by mid- to high-end prices in all regional leaders. After launching the national border series in 2004, it has been committed to more than a decadeBrand building, after 17 years of high-end price breakouts, the company has benefited significantly. Beginning this year, in addition to developing markets outside the province, the company gradually guided price upgrades, focusing on high-end price bands with V series. From the perspective of effects, the V series in the first quarter of this yearReached a growth of more than 200%, especially in Nanjing and southern Jiangsu, the growth is more obvious.

In the short term, the continued expansion of the sub-high-end + the increase in the share of cities in the province will still drive the company’s rapid growth, but in the long term it will require market 青岛夜网 expansion outside the province and price band upgrades to continue to open the company’s growth ceiling. Opportunities and challenges coexist.

4. Earnings forecast and rating: EPS is expected to be 1 in 19-21.



96 yuan, corresponding to PE23 / 18/14 times, maintaining the “strongly recommended” level.

5. Risk reminders: (1) The company’s market outside the province has been weak, and the future development efforts are still unsatisfactory, leading to changes in long-term growth space, which is expected to increase pressure; (2) Intensified market competition in the province, Yanghe and foreign countriesThe growth rate of brand-name wines continues to increase, occupying Jiangsu’s high-end market, causing the company’s sales and performance growth to fall short of expectations; (3) Macroeconomic changes have impacted industry demand, and prices of high-end brands such as Maotai Wuliangye have fallen, and national growth has been affected.Pressure.