Huatai strategy: RRR cuts to boost A-share sentiment liquidity needs to wait for interest rate cuts and reforms

Huatai strategy: RRR cuts to boost A-share sentiment liquidity needs to wait for interest rate cuts and reforms

Source: Huatai Strategy Rock Research Wen Zengyan / Zhang Xinyuan initially announced a full-scale reduction this Friday. Although the reduction is within the market’s expectations, we believe that the overall reduction of positioning is targeted to reduce the signal of easing and upgrade the significance of the signal.The pressure on the US 武汉夜网论坛 spread is distorted, and the space for further monetary policy expansion is expanded, which supports the short-term sentiment of A-share funds.

What needs to be outstanding is that under the liquidation absorption of the tax season and the advancement of local bond issuance, it is difficult for the A-share market to obtain significant liquidity distribution, and it is difficult to directly benefit from this reduction. A-shares will face incremental liquidity in the future.Still need to wait for possible interest rate cuts and capital market reforms.

Considering the problems of the A-share sold price in wide credit + the policy chassis constructed by fair pledged mortgage risk remains solid, we believe that the bottom position of the Shanghai Composite Index 2440 is still relatively stable.

The industry configuration continues to focus on communications, brokerages, and construction.

  Abstract The downgrade upgrade supports the sentiment in the market. The incremental liquidity of A shares needs to wait for the interest rate cut and capital market reform to expand and announce a full-scale downgrade on Friday. Although the downgrade is within market expectations, we believe that the full-scale downgrade is relatively targeted and downgraded.Significance of most loosening upgrades, and expanding the current breakdown of Sino-US spread pressure, further easing of the subsequent monetary policy space growth, supporting the short-term sentiment of funds within the A-share market.

What needs to be outstanding is that under the liquidation absorption of the tax season and the advancement of local bond issuance, it is difficult for the A-share market to obtain significant liquidity distribution, and it is difficult to directly benefit from this reduction. A-shares will face incremental liquidity in the future.Still need to wait for possible interest rate cuts and capital market reforms.
Considering the problems of the A-share sold price in wide credit + the policy chassis constructed by fair pledged mortgage risk remains solid, we believe that the bottom position of the Shanghai Composite Index 2440 is still relatively stable.

The industry configuration continues to focus on communications, brokerages, and construction.

  The overall short-term sentiment of A-share market funds is supported by the overall RRR cut. The wide currency trend continues from 2018 to 2019. This is the established policy keynote. This time, the probability of a RRR cut has not exceeded market expectations.Actually, there is a difference from the expected guidance. We believe that the overall reduction of the quota has the signal significance of an easing upgrade, and at the same time, it will lead to a change in the pressure on the spread between China and the United States. There will be more room for further monetary easing in the future.Emotions form support.
Why are our experts financial and emotional support?

Because of the tax payment season in January + the advancement of local bond issuance + the significant increase in the approval of infrastructure projects + the bank ‘s perpetual bond issuance will start soon, and other liquidity absorption, it is difficult for the A-share market to obtain significant liquidity distribution and it is difficultBenefiting directly from this drop in the future, A-shares will usher in incremental liquidity or need to wait for possible interest rate cuts and capital market reforms.

  Credit reduction and improvement still take time. Broadening direct financing channels is the key. This overall reduction in standards reduces the pressure on the bank’s liability end, but the pressure on bank capital and asset end does not decrease, the cost of indirect financing risks is reduced, investment has a trend, and the credit of the current infrastructure chainGuarantees are subject to local government leverage, credit substitution in the private economy is subject to risk compensation and corporate profits are still in the downside, and credit acceptability for real estate is subject to policy scale, so improvement of this “drain” credit guarantee still needs time.

We believe that the more critical “canal” is direct financing-higher risks are relatively high, and investment has a certain reverse sequence, which is the key to the stability of social integration during the economic downturn, and the key to increasing the proportion of direct financing. We consider it to be the capital marketReform and further reducing the cost of funds, both will reduce the risk premium of A shares and attract incremental funds.

  Last year 10.

The 19 lows were key biology, and the market continued to break down is a small probability event. The opening price of the Shanghai Composite Index this Friday was lower than the four-year low set on October 19 last year, and then rebounded.

We still think last year.

The low point created by 19 is the key threshold creature. The market continues to fall below this position is a small probability event: First, the market has fully priced the problems of wide credit in late October. The value that can be used for verification is-In October and mid-November, the market reacted differently to the September-October social finance data, with the mean exceeding expectations. In mid-November, there was no reduction in this. The actual effect of the subsequent wide credit on the market is likely to have only marginal improvement;Second, from the rescue attitude in late October, the central government’s economic work conference’s statement of “focusing on preventing abnormal distortions and resonances in financial markets”, the policy built by fair pledge risk will continue.

  The industry configuration continues to focus on communications, brokerages, and construction, and the medium-term deployment of technology growth + large financial industry configuration continues to focus on communications, brokerages, and construction.

(1) Communication: The 5G industry chain is less affected by economic cycles and policy changes and has a high degree of certainty. The Central Economic Working Conference proposed “accelerating the pace of 5G business”; (2) brokers: the importance of capital market reform in economic work next yearSignificantly improved, the Central Economic Work Conference raised the proportion of direct financing again after three years; (3) Construction: The approval of infrastructure projects increased in November and December, targeted interest rate cuts opened the market’s expectations of the interest rate cut cycle, and the construction industryThe cost side is highly sensitive to the rate cut cycle.

The initial configuration ideas are still technological growth (communication + military) + big finance (bank, non-bank, real estate).

The theme investment continues to focus on the themes related to the big infrastructure chain, and the short-term focus on the theme of the Lunar New Year movie.

  Risk warnings: Corporate earnings growth has fallen faster than expected; pressure on Sino-US relations has further increased; and changes in global risk markets caused by changes in US stocks.

  Text risk warning: Corporate earnings growth has fallen faster than expected; Sino-US relations have continued to grow; US stocks have been linked to the risks of changing global equity markets.